Kegs, Eggs and Kramer (6/10)
Ty and Dan talk with Adam Kramer from Bleacher Report and Kegs ‘n Eggs about the college football point spreads released by the Golden Nugget, what they mean to the average bettor, and how they should be interpreted by the average fan. Plus, an honest discussion about super “public” teams, way-too-early betting locks, an impromptu power ranking of meals, and an important question about Bud Light Lime.
Today on The Solid Verbal, Dan and Ty welcome Adam Kramer from href="http://bleacherreport.com/users/821896-adam-kramer" >Bleacher Report and href="http://kegsneggsblog.com/" >Kegs ‘n Eggs to take a look at the absurdly href="http://kegsneggsblog.com/2013/06/07/golden-nugget-releases-250-college-football-point-spreads-for-2013-regular-season/" >early college football lines released by the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas.
Kramer starts off noting more and more early lines are being released earlier each year with the rise in popularity of college football.
Of course, upon examining the lines, the first thing that jumps out at Kramer is Alabama’s continued run of being favored in every game they play. This leads into a discussion on “public teams,” programs that are much more visible to the general public, thus increasing the likelihood that people will wager on their games. People continually overvalue teams like Texas, USC and Notre Dame purely off of their brands.
The guys start to wade a little bit deeper and Kramer says he was very surprised at how much Vegas likes Oklahoma State, assigning them huge lines against several of their opponents. Dan then asks what lines Kramer would suggest jumping on now before they start to shift closer to the season. Kramer suggests Arizona State over Wisconsin in a pick ‘em and Alabama at -6 against Texas A&M.
The conversation then turns to what can be gleaned from the lines conference wise and Kramer notes ACC contenders Miami, Florida State and Clemson are all getting decent odds to win the national championship with their relatively easy schedules.
Ty brings up the fact that he always falls into the trap of picking a road favorite and Kramer agrees that it’s a pitfall for gamblers, especially when those “public teams” are involved.
Looking at which lines have already moved since being released, Kramer says the strangest one he’s seen is Alabama versus Virginia Tech. The Golden Nugget currently has Bama pegged at -17, but some books have Bama at -28.
The guys examine future odds, looking for value in potential national championship winners outside of the heavy favorites. Kramer takes TCU at 33/1, but suggests looking at Oregon, LSU, Clemson and Louisville.
Kramer and Ty reveal their mid-June locks with Kramer taking TCU +4 over LSU and Ty taking Air Force +18 over Notre Dame.
Heisman odds are discussed and, outside of betting the house against Jeff Driskell, Kramer recommends never betting on the favorite, citing Geno Smith’s atrocious outing at Texas Tech last year when just one week earlier it seemed he was invincible.
Kramer’s golden rule of college football betting? Never bet on Clemson. Ever.
Lastly the guys discuss their meal power rankings and Bud Light Lime. Kramer puts breakfast as his no. 1 seed, with dinner as his no. 2 and completely throwing out lunch. Dan goes with lunch, breakfast then dinner, while Ty picks dinner, lunch and breakfast.
Kramer gives his blessing to men who choose to drink Bud Light Limes, but urges them to explore their beer options.